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JimG

MAGA: One and done? "Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts"

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I'm not trying to be a troll here...but this is election year and the article linked below has some valid points. The CV may be the most devastating thing ever to hit an incumbent trying to get reelected.

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

Quote

"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

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I’m no Trump supporter but I also am not sold on Biden yet. Maybe if he brings in the right VP and surrounds himself with a few others I will be more sold. 
 

Trumpers  are going to vote for Trump. 
 

But 4 years ago I thought most polls around the same time said Hilary would win running away. 

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22 minutes ago, TKE226 said:

I’m no Trump supporter but I also am not sold on Biden yet. Maybe if he brings in the right VP and surrounds himself with a few others I will be more sold. 
 

Trumpers  are going to vote for Trump. 
 

But 4 years ago I thought most polls around the same time said Hilary would win running away. 

Trump's strength is a core group of supporters that will vote for him even if he shoots someone on Fifth Avenue in broad daylight. There are a number of them on this board and no amount of evidence is enough to sway them. But that only gets him into the low forties, percentage-wise. So he needs to get 5-10% of independent voters - moderates, for the most part. He has time to persuade them, but he really needs to step it up.        

The economy is problematical. Some will give him a pass because of the virus, but it takes away what would have been his biggest strength - "hey, he is corrupt and a total embarassment, but look at my 401K!" That is gone now. 

If the cornavirus subsides enough by November to allow everything to get going 100% again, and if the economy is well on the way to getting back to normal, that might be enough. Incumbency is still a powerful advantage - they seldom lose re-elections - and there is some thought among the public that you need to stand behind the president in times of crisis. Even if he screws up the handling of the crisis in a major way.

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1 hour ago, TKE226 said:

I’m no Trump supporter but I also am not sold on Biden yet. Maybe if he brings in the right VP and surrounds himself with a few others I will be more sold. 
 

Trumpers  are going to vote for Trump. 
 

But 4 years ago I thought most polls around the same time said Hilary would win running away. 

Correct.  Some experts had Hillary with a 95% chance of winning.  I believe one magazine had even printed their "Madam President" cover.

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As of the end of 2019 I figured there was no chance of Trump losing...now I am not so sure but putting up Biden did the left no favors.  At this time, unless there is some return to some form of normalcy, I think that Trump is done and let's face it, he does himslef no favors everytime he opens his mouth

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28 minutes ago, STS said:

..now I am not so sure but putting up Biden did the left no favors.  

Biden was always their only real choice to defeat DT. In spite of what's posted on this board, there are a lot of people who like Joe. IMO, a moderate VP choice would be helpful. 

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Just now, JimG said:

Biden was always their only real choice to defeat DT. In spite of what's posted on this board, there are a lot of people who like Joe. IMO, a moderate VP choice would be helpful. 

out of the choices you are correct...there is no doubt that the pandemic will help him get elected.  As for his VP it will be interesting to see who he chooses or who the party chooses for him...I can't wait for the debates as we will see two bumbling idiots on stage

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1 hour ago, STS said:

out of the choices you are correct...there is no doubt that the pandemic will help him get elected.  As for his VP it will be interesting to see who he chooses or who the party chooses for him...I can't wait for the debates as we will see two bumbling idiots on stage

Trump will eviscerate Biden in any debate.  Biden may not even know where he's at.  Or he may challenge Trump to go outside and duke it out.  lol

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50 minutes ago, Blitzkrieg said:

Trump will eviscerate Biden in any debate.  Biden may not even know where he's at.  Or he may challenge Trump to go outside and duke it out.  lol

Calling people nicknames isn't debating. What Trump does is bully people and his mouth breathing wwe fan base LOVES it. Watching these 2 debate will be closer to watching SNL than real life. Sadly these are the 2 fuckjobs we are left with 

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14 hours ago, TKE226 said:

I’m no Trump supporter but I also am not sold on Biden yet. Maybe if he brings in the right VP and surrounds himself with a few others I will be more sold. 
 

Trumpers  are going to vote for Trump. 
 

But 4 years ago I thought most polls around the same time said Hilary would win running away. 

 

2 hours ago, STS said:

As of the end of 2019 I figured there was no chance of Trump losing...now I am not so sure but putting up Biden did the left no favors.  At this time, unless there is some return to some form of normalcy, I think that Trump is done and let's face it, he does himslef no favors everytime he opens his mouth

I don't see anyway Biden beats Trump. I don't care much for Biden but I despise Trump. At least with Biden we wouldn't have someone who is so woefully inept at running the country and so ignorant to think they know everything better than the experts. It will be a shitshow and an embarrassment the entire time 

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16 hours ago, Ace Dilcock said:

Trump's strength is a core group of supporters that will vote for him even if he shoots someone on Fifth Avenue in broad daylight. There are a number of them on this board and no amount of evidence is enough to sway them. But that only gets him into the low forties, percentage-wise. So he needs to get 5-10% of independent voters - moderates, for the most part. He has time to persuade them, but he really needs to step it up.        

The economy is problematical. Some will give him a pass because of the virus, but it takes away what would have been his biggest strength - "hey, he is corrupt and a total embarassment, but look at my 401K!" That is gone now. 

If the cornavirus subsides enough by November to allow everything to get going 100% again, and if the economy is well on the way to getting back to normal, that might be enough. Incumbency is still a powerful advantage - they seldom lose re-elections - and there is some thought among the public that you need to stand behind the president in times of crisis. Even if he screws up the handling of the crisis in a major way.

Fanatics are dug in deep on both sides.  Hypocrisy is also rampant in both camps and history should tell us all don't put faith in polls and modeling.   I haven't voted FOR a president in a long time but I have voted against them.

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4 hours ago, Blitzkrieg said:

Trump will eviscerate Biden in any debate.  Biden may not even know where he's at.  Or he may challenge Trump to go outside and duke it out.  lol

Trump knows a hell of a lot less about government, world events, politics, etc. than Biden. in 2016, he got away with being an asshole with the other Republican candidates and Hillary because he could attack them on their record, but they could not do the same - he had no record.

Now Trump has an entire record of failure, lies and cover-ups. I do not think that Biden is the type that will go hard after Trump - if he is even capable of doing that - but all he needs to do is remind viewers of what Trump has said and done (or not done).

Trump will not do as well in attack mode - unlike Hillary, Biden is more of the likable, friendly (sometimes too friendly, LOL) uncle type. By comparison, Trump will come across as the arrogant, egotistical asshole that he is, and Biden will benefit.

But I still think it depends on how far the country and the economy recovers between now and November.

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5 hours ago, Ace Dilcock said:

Trump knows a hell of a lot less about government, world events, politics, etc. than Biden. in 2016, he got away with being an asshole with the other Republican candidates and Hillary because he could attack them on their record, but they could not do the same - he had no record.

Now Trump has an entire record of failure, lies and cover-ups. I do not think that Biden is the type that will go hard after Trump - if he is even capable of doing that - but all he needs to do is remind viewers of what Trump has said and done (or not done).

Trump will not do as well in attack mode - unlike Hillary, Biden is more of the likable, friendly (sometimes too friendly, LOL) uncle type. By comparison, Trump will come across as the arrogant, egotistical asshole that he is, and Biden will benefit.

But I still think it depends on how far the country and the economy recovers between now and November.

Whether true or not, your first sentence has nothing to do with garnering votes to win an election. If America can vote him in once why not twice? This coming from someone who did not and will not vote for him. 

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7 minutes ago, TKE226 said:

Whether true or not, your first sentence has nothing to do with garnering votes to win an election. If America can vote him in once why not twice? This coming from someone who did not and will not vote for him. 

Trump has more experience at being President than Biden does.  And if Biden did have any experience as President he would probably forget about it.

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19 minutes ago, Blitzkrieg said:

Trump has more experience at being President than Biden does.  And if Biden did have any experience as President he would probably forget about it.

No he does not - Trump has not been a president in any traditional sense of the word.

Biden got an up close and personal 8 year training course on how to be a president, And, if he is paying attention, he is finishing up a 4 year course on how not to be a president.

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26 minutes ago, Blitzkrieg said:

It's just Joe, it's OK when he does it.

Does what? Point out that Trump looks out for the rich white folks and does not give a crap about blacks and other minorities? It is okay for him to point that out - he would be dumb not to.

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40 minutes ago, carolina_corpsman said:

Casual racism and some of you are ok with it. 

Typical.

No, not casual racism at all - you guys are pretty "formal" and serious about it.

But this is your big chance for the coherent thought breakthrough - drumrolls, please - tell us why you are seeing "casual racism"?

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